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2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Aired 9 July 2026 · written 8 July, when Gavin Newsom was 20%

2028 Democratic presidential nominee — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 8 July 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

Gavin Newsom20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
Jon Ossoff14%
Kamala Harris8%
Pete Buttigieg5%
Rahm Emanuel5%
Josh Shapiro5%
Andy Beshear3%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
7 November 2028
Volume traded
$227,042,066
Outcomes on the board
23
Resolution criteria. If [outcome] wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Why we chose it

The wild card here is Ossoff at 15% — that's the number screaming for a video. He's emerged as a 2028 contender basically by becoming an "internet sensation" churning out viral content for his Senate reelection campaign, with rally lines like calling the Trump administration "the Epstein class" going viral. Michelle Goldberg wrote a NYT piece titled "Why Everyone Wants Jon Ossoff to Run for President," arguing that if you cooked up an ideal 2028 candidate in a lab, he'd look like Ossoff — a southerner from a reddish state with Black-voter appeal, and a Jewish critic of Israel who could bridge the party's Zionism divide.

Catch: he's said publicly he has "zero interest" in running, warning against playing "fantasy football" with 2028 while democracy's on the line in the midterms, and he has to survive a brutal Georgia Senate race first.

Newsom at 21% is the establishment default — termed out of California, boosted by publicly battling Trump, openly flirting with a run. AOC at 16% rode a national tour with Bernie that spiked her from 8% to 12%+. Harris collapsed to 8% because even former supporters are telling reporters they want fresh faces. Rahm Emanuel at 5% is the joke tier — the "moderate scold" lane nobody's actually asking for. Shapiro/Beshear are the "safe governor" hedges if the party panics about AOC.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Newsom's the one who actually livestreamed himself debating DeSantis. He wants it, he's built for it, and he's the only name on the board still campaigning.
Eddie
A democratic socialist running co-favourite and nobody blinks. Ten years ago that market doesn't exist. The crowd loves her ceiling and forgets her floor.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% written 8 Jul aired 9 Jul 24 May 26 Jul 27 Sep Jon Ossoff 16% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 16% Gavin Newsom 14% Kamala Harris 7% Andy Beshear 6% Pete Buttigieg 5%
Written 8 Jul Aired 9 Jul Source: KALSHI

Biggest move since: Gavin Newsom, down from 20% on the day the episode was written to 14% today.