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Will congress ban prediction markets in 2026?

Aired 10 July 2026 · written 18 June, when Yes was 20%

Will congress ban prediction markets in 2026? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 18 June 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

20% Yes No 80%
Platform
Polymarket · real money
Resolves
30 June 2026
Volume traded
$18,805
Lifetime volume on this market is $18,805 — enough to read a trend, but thin enough that a single motivated trader can move the price.
Resolution criteria. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory…

Why we chose it

This bet exists because Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) introduced bipartisan legislation in March 2026 that would prohibit CFTC-registered platforms from offering sports-related contracts and casino-style event contracts — the "Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act" — and just this week a coalition of gaming, tribal, labor, and regulatory groups urged senators to ban sports and casino-related prediction market contracts by adding language to pending crypto legislation. That last-minute crypto-bill rider is the live wire driving the odds.

The reason it's THIS angle (not generic gambling bans): Kalshi and Polymarket have exploded — valuations went from hundreds of millions to tens of billions in about 11 months — and the AGA estimates states have lost up to $1 billion in gaming tax revenue, so casinos + tribes + state AGs are all knives-out. Meanwhile Donald Trump Jr. is an investor in Polymarket and advisor to Kalshi, and CFTC Chair Selig just proposed rules that largely *protect* sports contracts — making a Trump signature on a ban nearly unthinkable.

YES case: gaming lobby successfully smuggles a ban into must-pass crypto legislation. NO case (the 80%): no standalone bill has floor momentum, Trump won't sign against his son's interests, clock runs out.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Twenty's the right number because Don Jr. is invested in Polymarket and advising Kalshi. The President doesn't sign a bill that guts his kid's cap table.
Eddie
A prediction market on whether Congress bans prediction markets. The snake eating its tail with a Bloomberg terminal. Whole regulatory futures hinging on one family dinner.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% written 18 Jun aired 10 Jul 4 May 16 Jul 27 Sep Yes 10%
Written 18 Jun Aired 10 Jul Source: POLYMARKET

The market has moved down from 20% on the day the episode was written to 10% today.