2028 Republican presidential nominee
Aired 31 July 2026 · written 22 July, when J.D. Vance was 40%
The market we based this episode on
The board on 22 July 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
| J.D. Vance | 40% | |
| Marco Rubio | 30% | |
| Ron DeSantis | 5% | |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 4% | |
| Donald J. Trump | 3% | |
| Tucker Carlson | 2% | |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% |
Why we chose it
Vance is the presumed heir but his lead has shrunk dramatically — a year ago he was pushing 50% while Rubio sat in single digits, and now Vance is at around 40% and Rubio is at just under 30%. The catalyst was war: Rubio's odds to be the GOP nominee have risen precipitously in 2026, with particular jumps surrounding the initiation of military operations — namely the February 28 U.S.
strikes on Iran and the capture of Maduro in January, where Rubio's Secretary of State role put him on camera constantly. Meanwhile Trump has cast doubts about whether he views Vance as his successor, with a NYT report saying Trump brings up Vance's initial opposition to the war in Iran, and right after the Iran strikes, Trump reportedly asked a room of GOP donors who they'd prefer as 2028 nominee, with attendees favoring Rubio.
The comedy gold in the tail: Trump himself at 3% (22nd Amendment jokes), Don Jr. at 4%, Ivanka at 1%, and Tucker at 3% as the isolationist-wing revenge pick against a hawkish Rubio. Bull case for Vance: he's the VP with MAGA-base loyalty and Trump can still bless him. Bull case for Rubio: he's become Trump's most-used utility player and donors are warming.
What we thought
How it’s moved since
Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
Biggest move since: Marco Rubio, down from 30% on the day the episode was written to 20% today.