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Will Dave Portnoy score any pizza place a 9.0 or higher in 2026?

Aired 30 July 2026 · written 29 July, when Before 2027 was 38%

Will Dave Portnoy score any pizza place a 9.0 or higher in 2026? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 29 July 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

38% Before 2027 Not Before 2027 62%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
1 January 2027
Volume traded
$12,857
Lifetime volume on this market is $12,857 — enough to read a trend, but thin enough that a single motivated trader can move the price.
Resolution criteria. If Dave Portnoy reviews any pizza place and scores it a 9.0 or higher before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Why we chose it

This bet exists because a 9.0+ from Portnoy is genuinely rare — before his May 2025 Ceres review, he'd handed out only 21 nine-plus scores in the entire history of One Bite, and just three in the previous four years. That Ceres 9.2 (a Mott Street shop opened by two ex-Eleven Madison Park cooks) was his highest since 2023, and Barstool ran a "Best of 2025" victory lap on it in late December, which is almost certainly what spawned this Kalshi market — traders are extrapolating from a hot streak.

Portnoy's ratings usually cluster in the 6s and low 7s; in all of 2024, even the best MA pizzas topped out around 8.1, and his 2025 CT/MA road trips maxed at 7.9–8.1. Bull case: he's clearly loosened up post-Ceres, and one Brooklyn/Jersey stop can pop a 9. Bear case: 9s historically arrive roughly once every year or two, most 2025 reviews weren't close, and 38% actually feels generous given the base rate. Comedy angle: the "undercarriage" obsession and the Dragon Pizza feud lore.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
He loosened up post-Ceres and did a December victory lap on it — that's why thirty-eight isn't fifteen. Five months, one slice, one guy flipping crusts.
Eddie
Sal, that's a bet on whether one man's mood on a Tuesday in Seaside Park is generous. Twenty-one nines in the show's whole run. It's a taste-bud actuarial table.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% written 29 Jul aired 30 Jul 17 Jun 24 Jul 28 Aug Before 2027 99%
Written 29 Jul Aired 30 Jul Source: KALSHI

The market has moved up from 38% on the day the episode was written to 99% today.