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Next Pirates of the Caribbean film: Will Johnny Depp be cast?

Aired 16 July 2026 · written 3 July, when Yes was 52%

Next Pirates of the Caribbean film: Will Johnny Depp be cast? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 3 July 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

52% Yes No 48%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
1 January 2035
Volume traded
$25,465
Lifetime volume on this market is $25,465 — enough to read a trend, but thin enough that a single motivated trader can move the price.
Resolution criteria. If Johnny Depp is cast in the next Pirates of the Caribbean before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.

Why we chose it

This bet exists because the question of whether Captain Jack Sparrow, the character that turned a theme park ride into one of Hollywood's most profitable franchises, will be part of Pirates 6 has lingered in the Disney fan community longer than almost any other franchise question. The market swung to 54% Depp because Jerry Bruckheimer, producer of every Pirates film, told The Direct on the PGA red carpet in February 2026 that "if it's up to me, he'll be in it" — but that contradicts a competing February 2026 InSneider scoop that the story focuses on Sparrow's son and a new character played by Margot Robbie, with a Depp cameo possible but undecided.

The running joke fueling the market: Depp's trial line that it would take "$300 million and a million alpacas" to bring him back, which fans meme'd into the "$301 million apology deal."

Bull case: Disney is watching Depp's comeback year — specifically Ti West's Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol (Nov 2026) — before committing; if it hits, the reboot embraces him as a legacy handoff à la Indiana Jones/Dial of Destiny. Bear case: Disney goes full Robbie-led reboot with no Depp, and the "Sparrow's son" script wins. With a 2035 deadline, time heavily favors yes.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Disney has until 2035 and Depp's got a Christmas Carol coming. If that hits, the wallet opens faster than you can count pieces of eight — cameo, voiceover, wink.
Eddie
The fine print says a wink counts. So it's not really a Depp bet, Sal, it's a bet on whether Disney can stay mad at him for a decade.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% written 3 Jul aired 16 Jul 19 May 24 Jul 27 Sep Yes 96%
Written 3 Jul Aired 16 Jul Source: KALSHI

The market has moved up from 52% on the day the episode was written to 96% today.