What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
Aired 15 July 2026 · written 23 June, when Earbuds/Headphones was 31%
The market we based this episode on
The board on 23 June 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
| Earbuds/Headphones | 31% | |
| Necklace | 14% | |
| Clip-on device for clothing | 14% | |
| Glasses | 14% | |
| Phone | 11% | |
| Watch | 6% | |
| Ring | 6% | |
| Head-mounted display | 4% |
Why we chose it
This bet stems from OpenAI's May 2025 acquisition of Jony Ive's hardware startup io for ~$6.5 billion, with Altman and Ive promising "the next big thing after the iPhone" but refusing to confirm what it actually is. The market is essentially traders parsing a year of contradictory leaks. The running joke: everyone expected glasses or a Humane-style pin, but Ive and Altman explicitly said they don't want a screen, and described the device as pocket-sized and contextually aware — Altman even compared smartphones to "walking through Times Square."
Why the odd outcome split: the primary device, codenamed "Sweetpea," reportedly matches iPod shuffle dimensions — small enough to wear around the neck or pocket, with a second pen-shaped device codenamed "Gumdrop". That shuffle-on-a-lanyard description is why "Necklace" and "Clip-on" have real weight. Earbuds leads because GizmoChina reported "SweetPea" as AI-powered earbuds, an AirPods alternative. Wild card: The Information says the first device is actually a smart speaker with a camera, priced $200–300 — which doesn't cleanly fit ANY listed Kalshi outcome, the comedic angle worth exploiting.
What we thought
How it’s moved since
Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
Biggest move since: Earbuds/Headphones, down from 31% on the day the episode was written to 9% today.