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Oscar for Best Picture?

Aired 30 May 2026 · written 28 May, when The Odyssey was 22%

Oscar for Best Picture? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 28 May 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

The Odyssey22%
Digger12%
Dune: Part Three12%
Project Hail Mary10%
The Black Ball9%
Wild Horse Nine8%
Disclosure Day6%
Fjord4%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
31 December 2027
Volume traded
$7,060,836
Outcomes on the board
41
Resolution criteria. If [outcome] has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Awards betting is priced on pedigree, never on footage. Nolan at twenty-two with thirty rivals is the odds-on favourite. Call it a Homer run.
Eddie
Sal, we're pricing a three-thousand-year-old Greek poem for Best Picture in May, nine months out, and the casting backlash has already dented the goodwill. In May.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% written 28 May aired 30 May 13 Apr 6 Jul 27 Sep The Odyssey 52% The Black Ball 28% Dune: Part Three 10% Wild Horse Nine 4% The Debut 2% Project Hail Mary 2% Digger 0%
Written 28 May Aired 30 May Source: KALSHI

Biggest move since: The Odyssey, up from 22% on the day the episode was written to 52% today.