People's Sexiest Man Alive for 2026
Aired 24 June 2026 · written 19 June, when Bad Bunny was 36%
The market we based this episode on
The board on 19 June 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
| Bad Bunny | 36% | |
| Michael B. Jordan | 28% | |
| Zohran Mamdani | 8% | |
| Pedro Pascal | 8% | |
| Ryan Gosling | 7% | |
| Timothée Chalamet | 4% | |
| Travis Kelce | 4% | |
| Harry Styles | 3% |
Why we chose it
People announces this in early November with a Fallon reveal, so the market's real clock runs out in about eight weeks, not December. The comedy engine here is establishment vs. internet: Bad Bunny leads off his monster Super Bowl-era year, while Michael B. Jordan's case is his Best Actor win for Sinners — except only four men have ever repeated in the award's 40-year history, and MBJ won in 2020, which is why his 14% feels rich.
The wild card is Connor Storrie, the breakout star of gay hockey romance Heated Rivalry who hosted SNL and got an Emmy nomination for it; he was the market's clear frontrunner at the start of the year when the show peaked. Telling split: UK bookmakers made Bad Bunny the 6/4 favorite and dropped Storrie and Hudson Williams from their boards entirely — Vegas thinks the fanfic wave broke; Kalshi doesn't.
Kalshi's board sums to only ~77%, meaning traders are pricing a real chance of a Krasinski-style curveball nobody's listed. Damon (The Odyssey) and Corenswet (Superman press machine) are the sanctioned dark horses.
What we thought
How it’s moved since
Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
Biggest move since: Michael B. Jordan, down from 28% on the day the episode was written to 1% today.