Aired 7 July 2026 · written 6 July, when DoorDash was 80%
The board on 6 July 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
| DoorDash | 80% | |
| Modelo | 74% | |
| Nike | 74% | |
| Gatorade | 70% | |
| Gemini | 68% | |
| Samsung | 66% | |
| Pepsi | 66% | |
| Ford | 66% |
This market exists because the 2026 World Cup Final on July 19 at MetLife is being pitched as the most commercially valuable single broadcast in history — the final is July 19th in New York/New Jersey with Fox and NBCUniversal broadcasting, and Kalshi itself just spent ~$20M to muscle into the tournament's ad inventory, so "which brands buy the biggest slot ever" is on-brand for the platform.
The listed names aren't random — they map to actual FIFA tiers or aggressive challenger campaigns: Tier-1 partners include Adidas, Coca-Cola, Visa, and Tier-2 sponsors include Budweiser (AB InBev), McDonald's, Bank of America, Verizon. Nike is the anti-sponsor angle (Adidas owns the official slot, so a Nike ad would be a classic ambush play). Modelo (not Bud) makes sense because Mexico is co-hosting and Modelo is the US's top-selling beer.
DoorDash at 81% reflects its heavy Super Bowl / live-sports pattern; Gatorade rides on-field visibility; Jeep is the wildcard Americana bet. Samsung and Walmart are safe US-broadcast staples. The realistic "No" case for each: FIFA's exclusivity rules can lock out category rivals (killing Nike, maybe Gatorade if Powerade-adjacent deals exist), and Fox/Telemundo split the feed — only ads in the official national/primary broadcast feed count, not regional or affiliate-inserted spots, which is the real trap in this market.


Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
Biggest move since: DoorDash, down from 80% on the day the episode was written to 1% today.