Who will play Britney Spears in her Biopic?
Aired 11 September 2026 · written 11 September, when Olivia Holt was 28%
The market we based this episode on
The board on 11 September 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
| Olivia Holt | 28% | |
| Addison Rae | 12% | |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 12% | |
| Chloë Grace Moretz | 9% | |
| Emma Roberts | 8% | |
| Florence Pugh | 8% | |
| Sydney Sweeney | 7% | |
| Millie Bobby Brown | 6% |
Why we chose it
Universal bought the rights to Britney's memoir "The Woman in Me" in a highly competitive auction, and the bet heated up because the project finally moved: in July 2026 Universal hired New Girl and The Dropout creator Liz Meriwether to write the script. Olivia Holt leads purely on fan-casting momentum — a former Disney star and singer who told Variety "I would be so honored to play Britney," while admitting she'd never been contacted by Chu.
That's the whole board's problem: Chu tweeted "None of this is true... have not had one conversation about casting this movie yet", and no script means no casting — realistic filming is late 2026 or 2027, release unlikely before 2028.
Comedy angles: UK oddsmakers have Millie Bobby Brown near odds-on, with Sabrina at 2/1 and Ariana at 5/2 — Ariana isn't even on Kalshi's board. And history says fresh faces win these roles (Whitney, Amy Winehouse). Wildcard: Britney herself posted the project "isn't a biopic story" but "a fictional musical where I play an extremely intelligent character" — so the answer might be Britney.
What we thought
How it’s moved since
Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
The board has barely moved since — no outcome has shifted by more than two points.