Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Aired 15 June 2026 · written 27 May, when France was 17%
The market we based this episode on
The board on 27 May 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
| France | 17% | |
| Spain | 17% | |
| England | 11% | |
| Portugal | 10% | |
| Brazil | 9% | |
| Argentina | 9% | |
| Germany | 5% | |
| Netherlands | 4% |
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Volume traded
$1,539,468,864
Outcomes on the board
48
Resolution criteria. If [outcome] wins the 2026 Men's World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
What we thought
SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
France and Spain both at seventeen cents, Brazil and Argentina at nine — eight serious contenders, one trophy, chaos disguised as statistics.
The sharps spend a year on spreadsheets, then Croatia ruins their life in ninety minutes. Meanwhile some lunatic in a Messi jersey turns twenty bucks into a vacation.
How it’s moved since
Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
Written 27 May
Aired 15 Jun
Source: KALSHI
Biggest move since: Spain, up from 17% on the day the episode was written to 100% today.