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2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner

Aired 20 August 2026 · written 14 August, when Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) was 26%

2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 14 August 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)26%
Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières)12%
Save the Children12%
Yulia Navalnaya7%
Shehbaz Sharif7%
Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine6%
International Criminal Court4%
Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue4%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
1 January 2027
Volume traded
$1,197,843
Outcomes on the board
37
Resolution criteria. If [outcome] wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Why we chose it

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms lead because they're the ultimate two-time bridesmaid: considered a front-runner for the prize this year and last, nominated two years running, and consolation-prized with both the Rafto and the "Alternative Nobel" Right Livelihood Award — grassroots volunteer networks running soup kitchens through the world's worst humanitarian crisis. The whole board is basically the PRIO director's annual wishlist, which matters because 10 of its picks between 2014 and 2025 eventually won; the 2026 list explains the otherwise-random Kuleba entry, pairing Mykola Kuleba/Save Ukraine and Save the Children as a joint children-in-war ticket.

The comedy gold: Shehbaz Sharif at 7% — the man famous for nominating Trump twice, once for the Gaza deal and once for the India-Pakistan ceasefire — got himself in the race after Pakistan's assembly formally recommended Sharif and army chief Munir for the prize. Meanwhile William Hill made Trump the 3/1 favorite, a name Kalshi's board doesn't even list. Case against ERRs: the committee loves a surprise — front-runner status killed them twice already. Announcement comes the second Friday of October.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Trust the exchange over the sportsbook. Three-quarters of a million in volume says Sudan's soup kitchens at twenty-six cents — Doctors Without Borders behind them. Oslo reads Oslo, not Mar-a-Lago.
Eddie
Sal, the ladle-in-a-warzone crowd is the FAVORITE at one-in-four, and William Hill has Trump at three-to-one for a PEACE prize. FIFA already minted him a trophy. I weep.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% written 14 Aug aired 20 Aug 30 Jun 14 Aug 27 Sep Sudan’s Emergency Respons… 12% Doctors Without Borders (… 12% Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukra… 8% Save the Children 8% Yulia Navalnaya 8% Shehbaz Sharif 3%
Written 14 Aug Aired 20 Aug Source: KALSHI

Biggest move since: Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), down from 26% on the day the episode was written to 12% today.