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Will Elon Musk have a Neuralink chip implanted in his own brain by the end of 2029?

Aired 21 August 2026 · written 12 August, when Yes was 27%

Will Elon Musk have a Neuralink chip implanted in his own brain by the end of 2029? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 12 August 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

27% Yes No 73%
Platform
Futuur · play money
Resolves
30 December 2029
Volume traded
4,901 play credits
This is a play-money market — the volume is virtual credits, not real dollars. Read it as a poll, not a forecast.
We haven’t recorded Futuur’s resolution criteria for this market.

Why we chose it

This one is a chicken-market: Musk has been publicly dared to eat his own dog food for years. PETA challenged him back in the pig-demo days to "implant the Neuralink chip in his own brain" instead of testing on pigs, and at the December 2022 show-and-tell he flatly said "in one of these demos, I will" — and reiterated it on Twitter. Four years on, still no chip in Elon. That gap between the promise and the follow-through is the whole bet.

The structural problem: he's not eligible. Trials only enroll people with paralysis from cervical spinal cord injury or ALS, so a Musk implant needs a healthy-person elective pathway the FDA hasn't blessed — or a stunt surgery abroad (trials run in the US, Canada, UK and UAE). Yes case: Neuralink says 2026 brings high-volume production and near-fully automated surgery, and Musk loves a demo. No case: he's set and missed multiple Neuralink timelines before — human trials were promised for 2022, arrived in 2024. 27% by end-2029 feels about right, maybe a touch generous. Comedy angle: world's richest man keeps volunteering, never scrubs in.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Four years of 'I'll go next,' and the pigs beat him to it. He can't get one at home — the trials are for paralysis. Twenty-seven cents is generous for a chicken.
Eddie
The man owns the rockets and the social network and still has to fly abroad to install his own product in his head. There's something medieval about that king.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% written 12 Aug aired 21 Aug 28 Jun 13 Aug 27 Sep Yes 27%
Written 12 Aug Aired 21 Aug Source: FUTUUR

The market has barely moved since.