Aired 17 June 2026 · written 28 May, when Before 2030 was 52%
The board on 28 May 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
| Before 2030 | 52% | |
| Before 2029 | 34% | |
| Before 2028 | 16% | |
| Before 2027 | 6% |
The $1.50 hot dog combo has not moved since 1984 — through eight presidents, hundreds of per cent of cumulative inflation, and one piece of corporate folklore that explains the whole market: when raising the price was floated internally, the response — publicly retold by Costco's own leadership — was "if you raise the price of the effing hot dog, I will kill you." That threat is canon, and management re-pledges allegiance to the price roughly annually.
Against that, sixty-five grand in volume and the date buckets: 6 cents by 2027, low teens by 2028, a third by 2029, 54 by 2030. A coin flip within four years, on a price the company swears is eternal. The nearest bucket is where the sharps graze — buying No at ninety-four to collect a nickel, dimes in front of a steamroller. What's really being priced is institutional stubbornness as an asset class: whether any promise survives leadership churn and margin math forever. The 54 says even legends amortise.


Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
Biggest move since: Before 2030, down from 52% on the day the episode was written to 36% today.