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Costco raises hot dog combo price?

Aired 17 June 2026 · written 28 May, when Before 2030 was 52%

Costco raises hot dog combo price? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 28 May 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

Before 203052%
Before 202934%
Before 202816%
Before 20276%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
1 January 2030
Volume traded
$78,317
Outcomes on the board
4
Resolution criteria. If Costco announces a price increase for a hot dog combo by Jan 1, 20 [outcome] , then the market resolves to Yes.

Why we chose it

The $1.50 hot dog combo has not moved since 1984 — through eight presidents, hundreds of per cent of cumulative inflation, and one piece of corporate folklore that explains the whole market: when raising the price was floated internally, the response — publicly retold by Costco's own leadership — was "if you raise the price of the effing hot dog, I will kill you." That threat is canon, and management re-pledges allegiance to the price roughly annually.

Against that, sixty-five grand in volume and the date buckets: 6 cents by 2027, low teens by 2028, a third by 2029, 54 by 2030. A coin flip within four years, on a price the company swears is eternal. The nearest bucket is where the sharps graze — buying No at ninety-four to collect a nickel, dimes in front of a steamroller. What's really being priced is institutional stubbornness as an asset class: whether any promise survives leadership churn and margin math forever. The 54 says even legends amortise.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Look at where the money is. Forty-five grand parked on six cents for 2027, buying No at ninety-four to grab a nickel. That's dimes in front of a steamroller.
Eddie
Sal, the CFO publicly threatened the guy who suggested raising it. That's not a menu item, that's the last stable price in America.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% written 28 May aired 17 Jun 13 Apr 6 Jul 27 Sep Before 2030 36% Before 2029 25% Before 2028 12% Before 2027 3%
Written 28 May Aired 17 Jun Source: KALSHI

Biggest move since: Before 2030, down from 52% on the day the episode was written to 36% today.