Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
Aired 18 June 2026 · written 27 May, when Before January 20, 2029 was 26%
The market we based this episode on
The board on 27 May 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
| Before January 20, 2029 | 26% | |
| Before 2027 | 8% |
Why we chose it
In January this stopped being a punchline: Trump called for "immediate negotiations to discuss the acquisition of Greenland," ruled out force for the first time, and handed the file to Vance, Rubio and Witkoff — an actual staffed negotiation, which is part of why seven million dollars has traded on it. Denmark and Greenland then said the quiet part at full volume: sovereignty is not on the table, and Greenland's PM answered "we choose Denmark." Yet framework talks about an expanded American presence are genuinely happening, which is why "at least part" is doing all the work in this title.
The 28 cents by end-of-term prices the gap between a security agreement — bases, minerals, Arctic access, all plausible — and a purchase of territory, which hasn't happened anywhere on Earth since 1958. The eight cents for this year is the tell: even believers think it's a slow deal. Real-estate logic meets geopolitics; the seller keeps saying no, the buyer keeps scheduling meetings, and the clock runs out in 2029.
What we thought
How it’s moved since
Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
Biggest move since: Before January 20, 2029, down from 26% on the day the episode was written to 12% today.