How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Aired 12 August 2026 · written 11 August, when Above 0 was 32%
The market we based this episode on
The board on 11 August 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
| Above 0 | 32% | |
| Above 1 | 30% | |
| Above 2 | 16% | |
| Above 3 | 16% | |
| Above 5 | 10% | |
| Above 10 | 8% |
Why we chose it
This market exists because screwworm went from Mexico-border scare to live American outbreak: USDA confirmed the first US animal case in roughly 60 years in a Texas calf on June 3, 2026, and by July 23 there were 42 animal cases across 16 Texas counties and one New Mexico county. The bet is the next domino: does a person get it. So far no — as of CDC's latest update, there have been no reports of human infestations acquired in the US in 2026.
The realistic YES path isn't a rancher, it's a traveler: a Maryland patient back from El Salvador became the first US travel-associated human case in August 2025, and officials note several isolated traveler cases in recent years — plus surveillance is primed now that CDC stood up a human reporting system for a disease that wasn't nationally notifiable until this year. Reference class next door: Mexico logged 202 analyzable human cases from April 2025 to March 2026, so where flies circulate, humans follow — eventually. The NO case: US wound care catches larvae fast, and the animal footprint is still rural Texas.
Comedy gold: the board is broken. "Above 3" trades at 27% while "Above 2" sits at 13% — a logical impossibility, since you can't hit 4 cases without hitting 3. Same with "Above 10" (10%) beating "Above 5" (8%). Free money, or free material.
What we thought
How it’s moved since
Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
Biggest move since: Above 1, down from 30% on the day the episode was written to 16% today.