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Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?

Aired 13 August 2026 · written 22 July, when Drake was 51%

Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 22 July 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

Drake51%
Dua Lipa48%
Harry Styles48%
Kanye West48%
Olivia Rodrigo47%
Justin Bieber23%
Taylor Swift12%
Platform
Polymarket · real money
Resolves
1 April 2027
Volume traded
$14,242
Outcomes on the board
13
Lifetime volume on this market is $14,242 — enough to read a trend, but thin enough that a single motivated trader can move the price.
Resolution criteria. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person during the Super Bowl LXI halftime show currently scheduled for February 14, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying performances include but are not limited to singing and dancing.

Why we chose it

Super Bowl LXI is at SoFi in Inglewood on Valentine's Day 2027, following Bad Bunny's LX halftime set — one of the most-watched in history — so this market is essentially "who follows Benito?" Roc Nation is still producing, and sportsbook favorites are actually Miley Cyrus and Justin Bieber, with FanDuel opening Miley as the +310 favorite — which explains why Bieber (LA-based, freshly re-active on the festival circuit) is the only name priced meaningfully above the noise floor here at 23%. The other five names all sitting at ~48% is a Polymarket illiquidity artifact ($42 total volume), not real signal.

The Drake line is the juiciest creative angle: he has a fraught Super Bowl relationship after Kendrick annihilated him there last year, and getting his lick back in Kendrick's hometown at SoFi would be especially juicy — but chances are slim. Taylor at 12% reflects the post-Kelce-engagement narrative colliding with the fact that she just passed on 2026 despite heavy Easter-egg speculation. Harry Styles has a new album dropping March 2026, teeing up a 2027 promo cycle. Kanye is a pure meme line — no label, no Roc Nation appetite post-2022.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Sportsbook's got Bieber at plus-twenty-three off that World Cup bump, Miley co-chalk. Valentine's Day at SoFi — America's picking a date, and I'm swiping right on the Canadian.
Eddie
Sal, one board has Dua, Olivia, Harry, Kanye, Drake all tied and Miley isn't even listed. That's not pricing a halftime show — that's a shrug with a dollar sign on it.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% written 22 Jul aired 13 Aug 7 Jun 3 Aug 27 Sep Miley Cyrus 87% Jay Z 74% Justin Bieber 54% Dua Lipa 19% Harry Styles 13% Drake 7% Kanye West 7% Olivia Rodrigo 2%
Written 22 Jul Aired 13 Aug Source: POLYMARKET

Biggest move since: Olivia Rodrigo, down from 47% on the day the episode was written to 2% today.