Is Earth flat?
Aired 29 June 2026 · written 12 June, when Yes was 2%
The market we based this episode on
The board on 12 June 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
Why we chose it
Fifty-three thousand dollars traded on whether "conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public" by New Year's — with roughly fifteen grand of it sitting on Yes at three cents, dead money that will never pay out, parked there because nobody bothers pushing a joke line to zero. That's the actual mechanics: on Polymarket somebody must hold Yes for a No side to exist, so the price settles where lottery-ticket money and manifesto money meet the people harvesting near-free yield.
Three cents is the cost of being on the record against the globe. The resolution criteria are the comedy: a market that would need the entire body of physics, navigation and satellite imagery to collapse inside seven months, drafted with the same sober "by 11:59 PM ET" boilerplate as an election market. It sits in a Polymarket genre alongside Jesus returning and alien confirmation — bets that exist to prove the machinery works on anything. This is what it costs, in dollars, to formally disagree with a globe.
What we thought
How it’s moved since
Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
The market has barely moved since.