Aired 30 June 2026 · written 13 June, when New York was 70%
The board on 13 June 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
| New York | 70% | |
| Rhode Island | 32% | |
| Pennsylvania | 4% | |
| Tennessee | 2% | |
| Ohio | 2% |
Written on the very day tabloids swore the wedding was booked — 13 June at Rhode Island's Ocean House, the date chosen for the lucky 13, allegedly secured by paying off another bride's entire wedding. Then mid-May vendor whispers — a fireworks company reportedly told the Watch Hill event was off — moved the chalk to New York, which now leads at 69 cents with Rhode Island at 34.
But look at the volume: $1.7 million traded, and Rhode Island carries more of it than the favourite. That's the tell worth watching — public money chasing Manhattan headlines while quieter money loads up on the Watch Hill mansion, the Holiday House she's been writing into songs for a decade. Neither the couple nor a single vendor has confirmed anything, which is the market's whole character: it trades on caterers, pyrotechnicians and Page Six sourcing, because the principals say nothing. Somewhere under those prices is a real chair-count somebody signed for.


Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
Biggest move since: Rhode Island, down from 32% on the day the episode was written to 2% today.