OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Why we chose it

The word "announces" is carrying this whole market. It doesn't ask whether AGI exists — it asks whether OpenAI formally claims it before 31 December, and that claim is no longer free speech: under the restructured Microsoft deal, an AGI declaration triggers contract consequences and now runs through an independent expert panel rather than Sam Altman's keyboard. So the 12 cents, on seventy-five grand traded, is really pricing a corporate speech act with lawyers attached.

The case for: Altman has spent a year saying they know how to build it, the "gentle singularity" is his favourite riff, and a stray blog post using the magic word could make resolution genuinely messy. The case against: every incentive says keep saying *almost* — it keeps the capital flowing without pulling the contractual trigger, and the panel exists precisely to slow the announcement down. He's not announcing anything before the lawyers do. The joke writes itself: the market where the singularity needs sign-off from a committee.