Winds of Winter release date announced this year?
Aired 8 June 2026 · written 23 May, when Before Jan 1, 2027 was 14%
The market we based this episode on
The board on 23 May 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
14% Before Jan 1, 2027
Not Before Jan 1, 2027 86%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
1 January 2027
Volume traded
$46,391
Lifetime volume on this market is $46,391 — enough to read a trend, but thin enough that a single motivated trader can move the price.
Resolution criteria. If George R.R. Martin has announced a release date for The Winds of Winter before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
What we thought
SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Fair price is five cents, maybe three. Seventeen is a fifteen-year no-show trading like a maybe. Winter is coming — just not to a bookshelf near you.
People aren't pricing the book, Sal, they're pricing hope. Bettors were in elementary school when he announced this thing. It's not a market, it's a cult.
How it’s moved since
Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
Written 23 May
Aired 8 Jun
Source: KALSHI
The market has moved down from 14% on the day the episode was written to 8% today.