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Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore?

Aired 10 June 2026 · written 20 May, when Before 2029 was 12%

Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 20 May 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

12% Before 2029 Not Before 2029 88%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
21 January 2029
Volume traded
$23,388
Lifetime volume on this market is $23,388 — enough to read a trend, but thin enough that a single motivated trader can move the price.
Resolution criteria. If an executive action has been taken or a bill has become law directing President Trump’s likeness be sculpted into Mt. Rushmore before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Why we chose it

This exists because it stopped being a joke and became a bill: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna filed one-page legislation directing the Interior Secretary to arrange the carving, and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum — who runs the Park Service — said on air there's "certainly" room for a fifth face. Trump has mused about it for years; now parts of his government answer as though it's a scheduling question.

The 12 cents, on ten grand of volume, prices the gap between vibes and granite. The bill has gone nowhere, and the mountain itself votes No: Rushmore's own sculptor wrote in 1936 that a fifth figure was impossible, the carvable stone being "fixed" — no commission, no sculptor, no rock. The market needs an actual carving arranged before the term ends in 2029, not a resolution honouring one. Yes is a bet that flattery becomes federal masonry on a deadline. No just needs geology and Congress to keep being themselves.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Twelve cents needs federal approval, a sculptor, and rock that's structurally maxed out. Three years, no commission, no path. The number comes down.
Eddie
Sal, you're treating twelve percent like a forecast. I'm treating it like a confession. One in eight looked at the last decade and thought yeah, sure, that tracks.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% written 20 May aired 10 Jun 5 Apr 19 Jul 27 Sep Before 2029 12%
Written 20 May Aired 10 Jun Source: KALSHI

The market has barely moved since.