When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?

Why we chose it

This bet is essentially a proxy wager on whether AI will crack one of math's holy grails within a decade. The Riemann Hypothesis — Bernhard Riemann's 1859 conjecture that all non-trivial zeros of the zeta function have real part 1/2 — is a Clay Millennium Problem with a $1M bounty and has been unproven for 165+ years despite being a central focus of research in number theory.

Numerical verification is absurd (first 100+ billion zeros checked), but no numerical evidence, however vast, constitutes a proof. The market exists because 2024–25 hype around AI-assisted mathematics (Terence Tao publicly using GPT/Lean, DeepMind's AlphaProof medaling at the IMO) has made "machines solve Millennium Problem" feel less absurd — AI-assisted reasoning and formal verification has prompted genuine discussion about contributing to a proof, and Lean 4's Mathlib now contains a machine-checked proof of the Prime Number Theorem, RH's baby cousin.

Bull case: an AI-human hybrid breakthrough via the Langlands program or Connes' operator-theoretic angle (he just published a Feb 2026 "Letter to Riemann" survey). Bear case: crackpot preprints claiming proofs appear monthly and always collapse — the 19%-by-2035 line is basically the market saying "probably not, but AI makes us nervous." Comedic angle: the 2% "before 2028" is pure ChatGPT-solves-math cope.