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Who will be the next James Bond?

Aired 2 June 2026 · written 17 May, when Callum Turner was 38%

Who will be the next James Bond? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 17 May 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

Callum Turner38%
Jacob Elordi18%
Harris Dickinson12%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson10%
Henry Cavill8%
Josh O'Connor7%
Jack Lowden6%
Henry Ashton6%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
1 January 2030
Volume traded
$2,368,186
Outcomes on the board
30
Resolution criteria. If [outcome] is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Rumour doesn't put two hundred and forty grand on one name. Elordi at 18, Dickinson at 12, a pack behind — that's a shaped board. Turner's chalk till a contract.
Eddie
Sal, no announcement, no script, no signing — and eight hundred grand has already built a leaderboard. We've turned a casting rumour into a regulated financial instrument.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% written 17 May aired 2 Jun 2 Apr 30 Jun 27 Sep Callum Turner 47% Jack Lowden 38% Jack O'Connell 10% Jack Barton 10% George MacKay 10% Harris Dickinson 6% Jacob Elordi 6%
Written 17 May Aired 2 Jun Source: KALSHI

Biggest move since: Jack Lowden, up from 6% on the day the episode was written to 38% today.