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Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Aired 1 June 2026 · written 24 May, when Yes was 14%

Will GameStop acquire eBay? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 24 May 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

14% Yes No 86%
Platform
Polymarket · real money
Resolves
1 January 2027
Volume traded
$3,006,321
Resolution criteria. This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify. An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes"…

Why we chose it

Three weeks ago this was absurd; now it's an SEC filing. Ryan Cohen delivered a $125-a-share, $56 billion cash-and-stock proposal to eBay's board on 3 May — GameStop having quietly built a 5% economic stake first — and on 12 May eBay rejected it as "neither credible nor attractive," which is board-speak for both "no" and "who do you think you are." The 14 cents, on over a million in volume, is the market believing the second half more than the first.

The case for: Cohen doesn't retreat, he's sitting on the meme-run cash pile and hunting for something to do with it, and he's floated issuing stock to fund the rest. The case against is the arithmetic — a mall retailer swallowing the original internet garage sale needs financing nobody has shown, past a hostile board and an antitrust review, all before the market's 31 December deadline. Between hostile-bid theatre and a closed acquisition sits most of that 86 cents. A lottery ticket on a billionaire's whim, with paperwork.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Fourteen cents on the mall video store swallowing the internet garage sale — hostile board, antitrust review, seven months. That's a lottery ticket on a billionaire's whim.
Eddie
Corporate strategy is now vibes and cash piles. Shoe companies pivoting to AI, mall outlets bidding for online juggernauts. Chaos with a share price.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% written 24 May aired 1 Jun 5 May 16 Jul 27 Sep Yes 6%
Written 24 May Aired 1 Jun Source: POLYMARKET

The market has moved down from 14% on the day the episode was written to 6% today.