Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026?

Why we chose it

This market exists because Trump hands these medals out like party favors, announcing them off-the-cuff at events — and 2026 has already proven the board can't keep up: Roger Penske got one on January 30, Ben Carson was announced at a Black History Month event February 18, and Trump used the State of the Union to promise one to Olympic hockey goalie Connor Hellebuyck — none of whom were listed here. That's the comedy engine: eight named contenders, all under 25%, while the actual medals keep going to walk-ons.

Dana White leads because he just delivered Trump's dream party — UFC Freedom 250 on the White House South Lawn, which doubled as the president's 80th birthday — and a thank-you medal writes itself. Belichick is the unfinished-business play: his 2021 medal was reported but never officially awarded (he declined post-January 6). Wiseman's case: he commanded Artemis II, the first crewed Moon mission since Apollo 17 — but Trump honored the hockey guy instead, and NASA glory means sharing credit with three crewmates. Stallone, Kid Rock, Hannity, Scavino are pure loyalty lottery tickets: plausible any random Tuesday, predictable never.