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Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Aired 3 July 2026 · written 1 July, when Yes was 21%

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 1 July 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

21% Yes No 79%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
1 January 2027
Volume traded
$25,932
Lifetime volume on this market is $25,932 — enough to read a trend, but thin enough that a single motivated trader can move the price.
Resolution criteria. If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.

Why we chose it

The bet exists because 2024 set a monster record (first year >1.5°C above pre-industrial), and 2026 is the next natural candidate given forecasts of a return from La Niña to neutral conditions in 2026, possibly followed by an El Niño later in the year. The angle got spicy in late May when Kew Gardens hit 34.8°C, the hottest May temperature ever recorded in Britain, and by Tuesday had reached 35.1°C, plus record May heat across France — which is why markets jumped now and not in January.

The 23% "Yes" price roughly mirrors expert consensus: Washington Post reported climate scientists peg the odds at 27% that 2026 will be the record warmest year, and Carbon Brief forecasts a 19% chance of warmest and 62% chance of second-warmest. Bear case (most likely): through April, the planet had its fifth-warmest start in 177 years — 2026 isn't running ahead of 2024's record pace; 2027 is the smarter bet for a new record once El Niño fully kicks in.

Bull case: James Hansen is loudly betting yes, arguing the coming El Niño is strong and ship-fuel sulfur cuts are accelerating warming — good contrarian-scientist-vs-market video fodder.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
One hot May in Kew Gardens doesn't make a calendar year. Through April the planet was fifth-warmest. Smart money's on 2027, when El Niño fully shows.
Eddie
Sal, we now have a market where people are penciling in 2027 to be the hottest year like it's a dinner reservation. That's what surrender looks like on a spreadsheet.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% written 1 Jul aired 3 Jul 18 May 25 Jul 27 Sep Yes 68%
Written 1 Jul Aired 3 Jul Source: KALSHI

The market has moved up from 21% on the day the episode was written to 68% today.