Will Luffy find the One Piece while the Pope Leo is still alive?

Why we chose it

This market pits the two most famously unhurried institutions on Earth against each other: Eiichiro Oda's pacing and the papacy. The mechanics are a joke with an actuarial core — Yes needs One Piece's protagonist to reach the treasure while Leo XIV still holds office, and at 85% the crowd is calling it near-certain, which is really two separate bets stacked: that the manga, deep in its declared final saga, actually finishes within a few years; and that a pope who took office at 69 reigns long enough to see it.

Both lean on good priors — Oda has said the end is close (while famously extending "close" for a decade), and modern papacies run long. The tail risks are the fun part: Oda's "final saga" elongating into the 2030s, or a short papacy turning the whole market on conclave timing. Somewhere in the 15% lives the only bet in finance that is short both a manga and a pope.