← The Inside Track Kalshi Real money

Will GTA VI win Game of the Year?

Aired 2 September 2026 · written 1 September, when Grand Theft Auto VI was 74%

Will GTA VI win Game of the Year? — episode poster
◆Watch this episode◆
Share on
TikTokXBlueskyFacebook

The market we based this episode on

The board on 1 September 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

Grand Theft Auto VI74%
Resident Evil Requiem10%
Control Resonant5%
Phantom Blade Zero2%
Crimson Desert2%
Marvel's Wolverine2%
Pragmata0%
The Duskbloods0%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
31 December 2026
Volume traded
$2,281,096
Outcomes on the board
20
Resolution criteria. If [outcome] has won Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Why we chose it

This bet is basically "does Rockstar hit its date," not "is the game good." GTA 6's November 19, 2026 release lands exactly one day before TGA's usual eligibility cutoff (Nov 20, the third Friday of November) — a photo-finish that spawned the market. The comedy hook: GTA 6 already won Most Anticipated Game at TGA in both 2024 and 2025 thanks to repeated delays, and fans joke the streak continues if it slips again.

The structural absurdity is that nominations drop mid-November — potentially before the game even ships — though traders counter that reviewers get early access, keeping it eligible.

The 73% Yes case: the August Extended Look pushed its win probability from 60% to 75%, and Rockstar's pedigree fits the pattern where critical consensus is the most reliable GOTY predictor — every winner since 2014 scored at least 85 on Metacritic. The No case: a third delay after 2025 and May 2026 already evaporated, or jurors judging a 500-hour game in three weeks. Notably, UK books have it cheaper at 4/6 (~60%) with Resident Evil Requiem at 3/1 — Kalshi's 12% on Requiem is half London's price.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
The market's at seventy-three, the London books say sixty. That gap is the ship-date risk — Rockstar's already blown two dates. Miss November nineteenth and Most Anticipated three-peats.
Eddie
Seventy-two hours on shelves against a whole year of games people actually loved. That's not Game of the Year — that's a coronation the jurors scheduled at the factory door.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% written 1 Sep aired 2 Sep 18 Jul 23 Aug 27 Sep Grand Theft Auto VI 69% Resident Evil Requiem 15% Phantom Blade Zero 6% Control Resonant 4% Crimson Desert 4%
Written 1 Sep Aired 2 Sep Source: KALSHI

Biggest move since: Resident Evil Requiem, up from 10% on the day the episode was written to 15% today.