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Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Aired 4 June 2026 · written 23 May, when Yes was 2%

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? — episode poster
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The market we based this episode on

The board on 23 May 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.

2% Yes No 98%
Platform
Polymarket · real money
Resolves
1 January 2027
Volume traded
$66,037,405
Resolution criteria. This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Why we chose it

Sixty-two million dollars is the number to sit with: one of Polymarket's biggest books, on the Second Coming, resolving 31 December. The 2% isn't really a theological estimate — on the No side this is a money-market trade, parking money at ninety-eight cents to collect two pennies in seven months, which beats a savings account; the Yes side is two-cent lottery tickets on the end of days.

And 2% is where every doomsday market settles, because nobody bothers buying it down to zero — the floor is apathy, not faith. Which is the actual story: a market where believers and quants price the same event for entirely different reasons, and where the resolution criteria — it happens "by 11:59 PM ET" — read like a lawyer copy-editing Revelation. The structural comedy is unresolvable on the Yes side's own terms: if it pays out, collecting seems beside the point, and the counterparty may be otherwise engaged. Both sides think the other is mispricing eternity.

The show’s read Before making an episode we research the market to judge whether it is worth one. This is what that research said about this bet — our reasoning, not reporting.

What we thought

SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Sal
Every doomsday market sits at the two-cent floor because nobody buys it down to zero. That's not believers — that's apathy. The No side already cashed.
Eddie
Two percent isn't zero, Sal. Somewhere in sixty-two million dollars of pile, somebody looked at Revelation and said you know what, I'm taking the over.

How it’s moved since

Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.

0% 10% written 23 May aired 4 Jun 8 Apr 6 Jul 27 Sep Yes 2%
Written 23 May Aired 4 Jun Source: POLYMARKET

The market has barely moved since.