Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
Aired 5 June 2026 · written 15 May, when Yes was 32%
The market we based this episode on
The board on 15 May 2026, the day the script was written. A price is the market’s odds of that outcome.
32% Yes
No 68%
Platform
Kalshi · real money
Resolves
31 December 2035
Volume traded
$27,777
Lifetime volume on this market is $27,777 — enough to read a trend, but thin enough that a single motivated trader can move the price.
We haven’t recorded Kalshi’s resolution criteria for this market.
What we thought
SalThe Handicapper
EddieThe Philosopher
Thirty-two cents on the Big One, nineteen grand in volume. That's not real money on a real catastrophe — that's a shrug with a price tag. The market's pricing memory, not geology.
Fort Tejon tore open two hundred miles in 1857 and nobody was there to see it. Now we'd lose a civilization, and we're haggling over lunch money on the odds.
How it’s moved since
Daily price. The dotted line is the day the episode was written — the odds Sal and Eddie were looking at. The solid line is the day it aired.
Written 15 May
Aired 5 Jun
Source: KALSHI
The market has barely moved since.