Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Why we chose it

Forty-five million dollars — one of the biggest books on Polymarket — on whether the President, a Cabinet member, the Joint Chiefs or any federal agency formally confirms extraterrestrial intelligence, on a schedule: about three cents by June, mid-single-digits by September, 16 by year-end. Those aren't small numbers for the US government announcing aliens are real, and the shape is the story: nobody's buying the near dates — the Yes money piles onto December, because hope is cheap and patient.

The prices are the residue of a genuinely strange few years: whistleblower testimony under oath about recovered craft, congressional UAP hearings held straight-faced, drone flaps over New Jersey, and a Pentagon office whose every report says "nothing verified" to an audience convinced that's the cover-up working. The fine print does heavy lifting — confirmation must come from named officials, not a leak, not a documentary. The bet isn't whether aliens exist; it's whether Uncle Sam holds that press conference this year.